March 2025 Real Estate Market Update: More of the Same, But Cracks Are Showing

We’ve moved into April, and that means it’s time to break down the real estate numbers from March. To be honest, the theme hasn’t changed much this year—it's a lot of the same story, but it’s worth unpacking because there are some important trends unfolding beneath the surface.

There was a lot of optimism at the start of the year, with talk of interest rates potentially coming down and giving the housing market a boost. But so far, that narrative just hasn’t materialized. The weight of the renewal wall, lingering uncertainties over tariff wars, and general economic hesitation are keeping things subdued.

Inventory is continuing to build up in most markets. Prices, interestingly enough, have held relatively stable—but the pressure is mounting. Let’s dive into the regional breakdown and see what’s really going on out there.

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Market Snapshot: Areas We’re Covering

This month, we’re looking at an expanded list of areas:

• City of Peterborough
• Peterborough County
• Belleville
• Cobourg
• Northumberland
• Kawartha Lakes
• And a broader GTA overview

We’ll also wrap up with some advice for buyers and sellers—although, spoiler alert, it hasn’t changed much since the start of the year.

City of Peterborough

In Peterborough, sales are down a significant 22% year-over-year for March. There were only 75 sales this March, which is notable considering last year’s March wasn’t exactly a booming month either. What’s even more interesting is that active listings have nearly doubled.

Despite this, prices have held on surprisingly well, even ticking up by about 0.5%. It’s impressive, but you have to wonder how long this can last. With growing inventory and softening sales, it’s tough to see prices maintaining these levels indefinitely.

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Peterborough County

The story in the county is very similar, though not quite as drastic on the sales side. Active listings have more than doubled here too, but the average price is still holding steady. Like in the city, the key question is: how long can this hold? With sales slipping and listings piling up, it feels like a waiting game.

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Belleville

Belleville offers a bit of a curveball. Sales dipped by 6.5% year-over-year, which, in raw numbers, is just a drop from 62 to 58 sales—so not a massive change. Interestingly, the average sale price is actually up by 11%. But with such a small sales pool, it’s hard to draw firm conclusions.

This bump is likely more about the types of homes that sold, rather than a real price surge across the board. Plus, with active listings doubling compared to last year, it feels unlikely this price increase will stick. We'll keep an eye on it in the months ahead.

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Cobourg

Cobourg is showing a bit more resilience compared to other Ontario markets. Sales are nearly identical to last year, and prices are up slightly. The only real change is the increase in active listings. Overall, Cobourg feels like a carbon copy of last year’s numbers, which is a small positive in an otherwise softening market.

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Northumberland Region

Northumberland saw sales drop 7.6% year-over-year, but again, average prices are up. We believe this is more reflective of the types of homes being sold rather than actual price appreciation.

The average days on market here is about 47 days, a bit higher than what we’re seeing in the more urban areas. That makes sense, as Northumberland covers a lot of rural ground, where homes typically take a bit longer to move.

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Kawartha Lakes

Another familiar story here. Sales in Kawartha Lakes are down 22% from last year. And it’s worth repeating: last year’s sales weren’t particularly strong, so this drop shows clear softness in the market.

Average sale prices are up 6.1%, but with active listings rising steadily, it’s unlikely this trend will hold. We’ll be watching this closely month by month to see how long prices can resist the downward pressure.

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Greater Toronto Area (GTA) Watch

Now, let’s zoom out to the GTA. Tracking months of inventory here is crucial because what happens in the GTA tends to ripple outward into surrounding markets. Think of it like a shockwave.

We saw inventory spike over the winter, then taper off a bit, and now it’s rising again. If this continues, we could surpass the inventory peaks from last fall very early in the year.

There is a glimmer of positivity, though: for the first time in a while, some areas are showing a slight downtick in inventory. It’s a small win, suggesting we might avoid a full-blown slide into deteriorating conditions. But make no mistake—this market is far from balanced.

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A quick shoutout here to Rob Marcilago, whose charts and graphs have been invaluable in tracking these numbers. His data shows just how much higher sales activity was this time last year and into the fall of 2023. Even with that little blip of optimism we saw last autumn, we’re sitting well below those levels now.

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Final Thoughts & Advice for Buyers and Sellers

Our advice remains consistent. For buyers, more inventory means more choice and potentially better negotiation leverage. For sellers, it’s critical to price strategically and ensure your home stands out in a crowded market.

Overall, while prices have shown surprising resilience, the swelling inventory and lagging sales are clear warning signs. We’re in a holding pattern, but the cracks are definitely starting to show. Stay tuned—next month’s numbers will be telling.

If you want to dive deeper into specific stats for your area or chat about strategy in this shifting market, don’t hesitate to reach out!

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